A decent US earnings season, bond-yield resilience in the face of higher inflation, and continued positive retail investor flows are supporting equity markets.

The S&P 500 gained 1.5% last week, while the S&P/ASX 300 was up 0.5%.

There were limited new developments on tariffs, but we did see building expectations of a potential Ukraine deal post Trump’s unilateral call with Putin. This remains a complex issue, and even if something were to happen, it will take time.

The market’s breadth is narrowing, which is a concern. Seasonals also turn less favourable from here. However, the underlying liquidity environment appears supportive. The market has also held up in the face of the first wave of negative headlines on tariffs, and there is no evidence of a technical breakdown.

So overall, we believe the market remains in a gradual up-trend.

Australian reporting season has swung into action. Overall, the results so far suggest the economy is holding up – with some small positive signs, notably from Commonwealth Bank and JB Hi-Fi. Victoria remains the standout weakest state, but everywhere else is performing well. There are some early signs that some of the higher P/E names are not delivering sufficient upside surprise to sustain their outperformance.

US Inflation and Economy Watch

The key focus for the US economy is the interplay between policy growth and inflation, and how that will affect interest rates this year.

The case for a June rate cut from the Fed relies on Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) growth being below 2.5%, employment not being too hot, and policy (i.e., tariffs and deportations) not being worse than is currently expected.

Last week’s CPI data for January was poor. In summary:

• Headline CPI was up 0.47% month-on-month versus 0.30% expected. It was 3.0% year-on-year versus 2.9% expected.
• Core CPI was 0.45% month-on-month versus 0.3% expected, and 3.26% year-on-year versus 3.1% expected.
• Higher numbers for used cars and airfares drove the surprise – combined, they added 8 basis points (bps) to Core CPI. Communications and insurance prices were also higher, having been soft in recent months.

The market’s initial reaction was negative, with bond yields backing up 10bps. However, the reaction moderated through the week and bonds recovered because:

• There is a belief that the seasonal adjustments fail to take fully into consideration the concentration of annual price increases put through in January – that is, it overstates inflation now, then understates it later in the year. Higher communications and insurance prices indicate this.
• Some of the beat was driven by “volatile” components (e.g., used cars and airfares), which are not included in the Core PCE – the Fed’s favoured inflation measure. Used car prices appear to be moderating already, based on auction data.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments signalled he was taking a muted reaction to the data point.
• Other measures of inflation look to be easing.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) and import price data were okay – and the combination of these and CPI allows the market to make an accurate estimate of the core PCE data. Using this, the Core PCE is forecast to come in at 0.26-0.29% month-on-month (implying 2.5% to 2.6% year-on-year) versus 2.81% in December and closing in on the Fed’s target inflation of 2.5%. Consensus has Core PCE falling to 2.5% by midyear.
• The market is pricing in a 40% chance of a June cut and 50% by July’s meeting. The current implied probabilities for year’s end are 22% no cut, 39% one cut, and 39% of two-or-more cuts.

US Retail Sales – Implies the US Consumer May Be Softening

January’s headline retail sales came in at -0.9% versus -0.3% expected (-0.4% versus +0.3% expected, excluding autos).

Again, the market is not reading this as a fundamental shift in trend given some mitigating factors:

• Cold weather and the LA fires.
• Strong holiday season sales, which may have been pulled forward.
• Auto sales affected by low inventories.

It does highlight that the prior 4%+ 3-month-on-3-month annualised run rate in consumer spending was not sustainable and we may be falling back to around a 2% run rate.

This slowing consumer also affected the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 2025 outlook, dragging it from 2.9% on 7 February to 2.3% on 14 February. This is now back in the consensus range.

Tariff Watch

There were limited new signals last week from the US.

The market focus is on the meaning of “reciprocal tariffs,” with the White House instigating a study on this issue which may not report back until 1 April. This was taken as a small positive as it is an alternative to “across-the-board tariffs” and will take time to prepare.

We should still expect other tariff announcements in the next few weeks, with potential targets being critical imports (e.g., pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) to incentivise a shift to domestic supply, and autos which would effectively be targeting Europe. China appears to have been spared the expected tariffs so far.

There are plans for a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, which may help defer this matter, but the issue remains volatile, and an increase in the current 10% tariff is still possible.

Australia

The RBA meets on Tuesday, and the market continues to price a high probability of a 25bp cut to 4.1%.

Should it cut, the RBA may frame it in cautious terms – a “hawkish cut” – as the risk of a policy mistake is high given that underlying inflation (once adjusted for the one-off subsidies) remains relatively high and the economy seems to be in good shape (with the exception of Victoria).

In this vein, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) updated its customer analysis in last week’s result. According to the analysis:

• Essential spending is slowing as a result of falling inflation – allowing younger age cohorts to spend more on discretionary items and to start saving again.
• It also suggests that disposable income is recovering.

The other risk for the RBA is the currency, which is already helping to ease financial conditions and – should it fall further – would add to inflationary pressure.

The last thing the RBA will want to do is look to have eased prematurely and run the risk of needing to reverse course in the future.

Markets

US earnings season is around 80% completed and is positive, with reasonable upgrades, and is on track for 13% year-on-year EPS growth.

While strong, we are now entering a deceleration phase, with consensus bottom-up forecasts suggesting EPS growth drops back to mid-to-high single-digit growth in coming quarters. However, this is driven by the slowing of Mag7 earnings growth; the rest of the market is expected to accelerate.

Australian Equities

Industrial and consumer stocks led the market’s small rise last week, mainly as a function of results coming through. Healthcare was the weakest sector on the back of Cochlear’s downgrade and CSL being softer.

Resources have been outperforming this month, up 2.1% versus a 0.5% gain in the S&P/ASX 300. There has been significant newsflow including tariffs on aluminium and steel, a record gold price, and cyclone disruption in iron ore. In lithium, volatility continues with CATL restarting its large lepidolite operation in China, which could impact global supply and demand dynamics.